//Data for Christian M. Dahl and Svend Hylleberg, 2003, //Flexible Regression Models and Relative Forecast Performance // // Invited paper for EC2 in Stockholm Sweden // December 17-19, 1998 // TRANSFORMED DATA FROM MONTHLY TO QUARTERLY // BY AVERAGING // SEE THE FILE USIPUm.DAT //US Unemployment Rate; SA 1948.1 to 1998.2 and //US Industrial Production: Market Group: Total Index; SA 1946.1 to 1998.2 // //Source: FREDŽ database, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis // /QUARTERLY // //US Unemployment Rate; SA //Quarterly Data: Averaged from monthly Data // Year Quarter Unemployment in percentage terms 1948 1 3.7415743 1948 2 3.6986713 1948 3 3.7557120 1948 4 3.8200507 1949 1 4.6330607 1949 2 5.8634833 1949 3 6.6945697 1949 4 6.9710163 1950 1 6.4005490 1950 2 5.5589893 1950 3 4.6477123 1950 4 4.2044213 1951 1 3.5155517 1951 2 3.1113497 1951 3 3.2023177 1951 4 3.3924577 1952 1 3.0771040 1952 2 2.9899730 1952 3 3.2286043 1952 4 2.8062550 1953 1 2.6872397 1953 2 2.6082817 1953 3 2.7287313 1953 4 3.7133157 1954 1 5.2452363 1954 2 5.7952753 1954 3 5.9819213 1954 4 5.3725307 1955 1 4.7229197 1955 2 4.3926663 1955 3 4.1219750 1955 4 4.2215390 1956 1 4.0439320 1956 2 4.2026020 1956 3 4.1410500 1956 4 4.1128413 1957 1 3.9597420 1957 2 4.0746017 1957 3 4.2195753 1957 4 4.9354090 1958 1 6.2869363 1958 2 7.3719393 1958 3 7.3212280 1958 4 6.3643300 1959 1 5.8110823 1959 2 5.1167847 1959 3 5.2993087 1959 4 5.6056833 1960 1 5.1725570 1960 2 5.2379183 1960 3 5.5622133 1960 4 6.2634117 1961 1 6.7853760 1961 2 6.9856173 1961 3 6.7612640 1961 4 6.1835933 1962 1 5.6268910 1962 2 5.4949330 1962 3 5.5509270 1962 4 5.5182283 1963 1 5.7915223 1963 2 5.6929473 1963 3 5.5059497 1963 4 5.5848090 1964 1 5.4701367 1964 2 5.2326123 1964 3 5.0018573 1964 4 4.9659260 1965 1 4.8840400 1965 2 4.6678953 1965 3 4.3643540 1965 4 4.1148400 1966 1 3.8606467 1966 2 3.8201203 1966 3 3.7632500 1966 4 3.6957377 1967 1 3.8223650 1967 2 3.8193133 1967 3 3.7971930 1967 4 3.9285613 1968 1 3.7407780 1968 2 3.5498427 1968 3 3.5230250 1968 4 3.4047073 1969 1 3.3895787 1969 2 3.4370107 1969 3 3.6031113 1969 4 3.5944613 1970 1 4.1713220 1970 2 4.7588600 1970 3 5.1809713 1970 4 5.8140607 1971 1 5.9260167 1971 2 5.9192683 1971 3 5.9946023 1971 4 5.9651730 1972 1 5.7940627 1972 2 5.6845170 1972 3 5.6099660 1972 4 5.3305840 1973 1 4.9762073 1973 2 4.9155493 1973 3 4.8186980 1973 4 4.7941940 1974 1 5.1101950 1974 2 5.1861960 1974 3 5.6081353 1974 4 6.5802857 1975 1 8.2411177 1975 2 8.8523343 1975 3 8.4913317 1975 4 8.2831243 1976 1 7.7470407 1976 2 7.5501687 1976 3 7.7232413 1976 4 7.7563123 1977 1 7.5160253 1977 2 7.1275650 1977 3 6.8871210 1977 4 6.6354343 1978 1 6.3223150 1978 2 5.9952047 1978 3 6.0169083 1978 4 5.8789223 1979 1 5.8729477 1979 2 5.7089937 1979 3 5.8631827 1979 4 5.9347787 1980 1 6.2915193 1980 2 7.3178253 1980 3 7.6751193 1980 4 7.3927823 1981 1 7.4208007 1981 2 7.3929440 1981 3 7.4113573 1981 4 8.2348860 1982 1 8.8369190 1982 2 9.4193440 1982 3 9.9362797 1982 4 10.669750 1983 1 10.390263 1983 2 10.095397 1983 3 9.3532380 1983 4 8.5348440 1984 1 7.8645503 1984 2 7.4717023 1984 3 7.4442797 1984 4 7.2751507 1985 1 7.2720163 1985 2 7.2807603 1985 3 7.2024027 1985 4 7.0458140 1986 1 7.0068357 1986 2 7.1716397 1986 3 6.9821643 1986 4 6.8262430 1987 1 6.6116080 1987 2 6.2715203 1987 3 6.0047497 1987 4 5.8594660 1988 1 5.7178533 1988 2 5.4773750 1988 3 5.4823353 1988 4 5.3401400 1989 1 5.2050077 1989 2 5.2339227 1989 3 5.2666673 1989 4 5.3628367 1990 1 5.3004607 1990 2 5.3375993 1990 3 5.6877373 1990 4 6.1140450 1991 1 6.5744353 1991 2 6.8242053 1991 3 6.8540877 1991 4 7.0974990 1992 1 7.3800000 1992 2 7.5952563 1992 3 7.6276260 1992 4 7.4073083 1993 1 7.1510670 1993 2 7.0702377 1993 3 6.8009530 1993 4 6.6206963 1994 1 6.5682463 1994 2 6.1568707 1994 3 6.0076520 1994 4 5.6168770 1995 1 5.4853653 1995 2 5.6566873 1995 3 5.6797100 1995 4 5.5737310 1996 1 5.5668823 1996 2 5.4400627 1996 3 5.2838573 1996 4 5.3036713 1997 1 5.2614737 1997 2 4.9344753 1997 3 4.8805117 1997 4 4.6724237 1998 1 4.6859600 1998 2 4.3702477 //US Industrial Production: Market Group: Total Index; SA//Real terms //Quarterly Data: Averaged from monthly // Year Quarter Industrial Production 1946 1 17.827000 1946 2 18.290000 1946 3 20.032000 1946 4 21.029333 1947 1 21.535333 1947 2 21.549000 1947 3 21.591333 1947 4 22.181667 1948 1 22.406000 1948 2 22.645000 1948 3 22.855667 1948 4 22.617000 1949 1 21.886333 1949 2 21.198333 1949 3 21.240000 1949 4 21.141667 1950 1 22.251667 1950 2 24.120000 1950 3 26.058667 1950 4 26.508333 1951 1 27.041667 1951 2 27.126333 1951 3 26.480000 1951 4 26.662667 1952 1 27.280667 1952 2 26.887000 1952 3 27.674000 1952 4 29.654667 1953 1 30.245000 1953 2 30.666333 1953 3 30.694333 1953 4 29.247333 1954 1 28.320333 1954 2 28.207667 1954 3 28.348000 1954 4 29.135000 1955 1 30.708333 1955 2 32.043000 1955 3 32.534333 1955 4 33.307333 1956 1 33.433333 1956 2 33.293000 1956 3 33.110667 1956 4 34.318667 1957 1 34.641667 1957 2 34.206000 1957 3 34.332667 1957 4 32.885667 1958 1 31.031333 1958 2 30.511667 1958 3 32.127333 1958 4 33.574000 1959 1 35.049000 1959 2 36.749000 1959 3 35.245667 1959 4 35.414000 1960 1 37.549667 1960 2 36.734667 1960 3 36.130667 1960 4 35.260000 1961 1 34.726000 1961 2 36.102667 1961 3 37.254667 1961 4 38.560667 1962 1 39.136667 1962 2 39.516000 1962 3 39.937333 1962 4 40.274667 1963 1 41.019667 1963 2 42.101333 1963 3 42.382000 1963 4 43.098333 1964 1 43.688667 1964 2 44.714000 1964 3 45.430667 1964 4 46.119000 1965 1 47.860333 1965 2 48.970333 1965 3 49.995667 1965 4 51.007333 1966 1 52.468333 1966 2 53.564000 1966 3 54.392667 1966 4 54.912333 1967 1 54.610000 1967 2 54.387667 1967 3 54.761333 1967 4 56.227000 1968 1 57.029333 1968 2 57.798333 1968 3 58.246667 1968 4 59.131333 1969 1 60.281667 1969 2 60.544667 1969 3 61.271333 1969 4 60.887333 1970 1 59.412333 1970 2 59.085333 1970 3 58.874000 1970 4 57.601333 1971 1 58.712000 1971 2 59.243333 1971 3 59.426333 1971 4 60.803667 1972 1 63.179667 1972 2 64.657000 1972 3 65.475000 1972 4 67.950333 1973 1 69.330000 1973 2 70.265333 1973 3 71.315667 1973 4 71.571667 1974 1 69.766333 1974 2 70.374000 1974 3 70.398333 1974 4 67.718000 1975 1 62.422000 1975 2 62.050333 1975 3 63.857333 1975 4 65.575333 1976 1 67.584333 1976 2 68.667000 1976 3 69.703333 1976 4 71.195667 1977 1 72.677667 1977 2 74.978667 1977 3 75.968000 1977 4 76.099333 1978 1 75.919667 1978 2 79.349000 1978 3 80.445333 1978 4 81.596667 1979 1 82.052000 1979 2 82.272333 1979 3 81.800333 1979 4 81.741333 1980 1 81.903667 1980 2 78.654000 1980 3 77.817333 1980 4 80.441000 1981 1 80.814667 1981 2 81.264667 1981 3 82.085667 1981 4 79.844000 1982 1 78.531667 1982 2 77.492667 1982 3 76.032667 1982 4 74.562333 1983 1 75.799333 1983 2 77.964333 1983 3 81.138000 1983 4 83.154667 1984 1 85.367333 1984 2 86.867000 1984 3 87.421667 1984 4 86.845667 1985 1 87.486333 1985 2 88.087667 1985 3 88.153333 1985 4 88.456333 1986 1 88.886667 1986 2 88.515667 1986 3 88.672333 1986 4 90.071000 1987 1 91.006333 1987 2 92.492667 1987 3 93.764000 1987 4 95.386333 1988 1 96.142667 1988 2 96.889000 1988 3 97.825333 1988 4 98.693667 1989 1 99.611000 1989 2 99.734333 1989 3 98.623667 1989 4 98.587667 1990 1 99.070667 1990 2 99.213000 1990 3 99.458000 1990 4 97.994333 1991 1 95.889333 1991 2 96.247667 1991 3 97.713667 1991 4 97.977667 1992 1 98.310000 1992 2 99.809667 1992 3 100.26933 1992 4 101.61100 1993 1 102.70333 1993 2 102.99000 1993 3 103.52133 1993 4 105.00267 1994 1 106.55567 1994 2 108.40233 1994 3 109.86167 1994 4 111.86600 1995 1 113.48767 1995 2 113.94900 1995 3 115.21600 1995 4 115.51933 1996 1 116.10467 1996 2 118.22800 1996 3 119.26967 1996 4 120.39333 1997 1 121.94000 1997 2 123.31167 1997 3 125.11933 1997 4 127.32067 1998 1 127.70200 1998 2 128.29667